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Curated list of coronavirus modeling resources

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Imperial College ABM Model

Model source code

Report on the Imperial College ABM model. The report makes a case in favor of suppression (making it so that R_0<1) against mitigation (“slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread”) “Mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems… overwhelmed many times over”

  • the report has been criticized in the review from Nassim Taleb et al., that states
    • “… conclusions that there will be resurgent outbreaks are wrong.”
    • “They ignore the possibility of superspreader events in gatherings by not including the fat tail distribution of contagion in their model”
    • " a multiscale approach accelerates response efforts, reduces social impacts, allows for relaxing restrictions in areas earlier that are less affected, enables uninfected areas to assist in response in the ares that are infected, and is a much"
  • details on the Imperial College ABM can be found in the supporting information of their PNAS 2008 paper. (source).

New England Complex Systems Institute Coronavirus initiatives

The SIMASSOC initiative

An agent-based model, in NetLogo, reporting on two possible interventions (testing, schools) providing also country comparison and economic scenario. Code available on github .

Systems Dynamics Society resources

Meta COVID-19 discussion

twitter

Current Models related to COVID-19

R/Shiny

Python

NetLogo

Calibration / Validation

Data Sources

Monitoring applications

Several IT groups are trying to come out with privacy-preserving applications for monitoring and community alerts. Data extracted from those apps (when and if possible) could inform simulation. Most (all?) of them use the idea of multiple, anonymous IDs.

  • Covidalert: Anonymously monitor your interactions and find out if you have been exposed to the virus, with no GPS tracking. Open source. “DOESN’T track users’ GPS positions.DOESN’T need any login.DOESN’T collect any privat or sensible data, such as name, surname, mobile number.DOESN’T shows on a public map your health status together with the locations you visited or the place you live in.

Hackathons / Competitions

NetLogo

FEW-View supply chain briefing on COVID-19:

FEWSION COVID-19 BRIEFING MARCH 26TH 2020.pdf (2.2 MB)