Kenya ITN Agent-Based Microsimulation (2003–2024) (1.0.0)
An agent-based microsimulation of insecticide-treated net (ITN) distribution and adoption in Kenya (2003–2024), integrating the Theory of Planned Behaviour, Rogers diffusion, Weibull net decay, and a GPS-based two-layer social network. 8,561 household agents calibrated via Approximate Bayesian Computation to six DHS/MIS survey waves, achieving 2.42 pp mean absolute error on Kenya-level ownership. The analysis chain supports mechanism counterfactuals and policy experiments on equity outcomes of ITN distribution strategies.
Release Notes
First public release associated with the JASSS submission (Kim & Shin, 2026, under review).
Contents: - Core agent-based microsimulation (21_itn_abm_v5.py): 8,561 household agents, monthly time steps 2003-2024 - Calibration pipeline (ABC v7, 4 free parameters, 1,000 LHS candidates → 200 accepted, best MAE 2.42 pp on six DHS/MIS survey waves) - Sensitivity analyses: PRCC (N=200) and Sobol’ global sensitivity (N=128, 6 parameters) - Ensemble experiments: 9 main-text scenarios × 20 seeds + P3b budget-matched cohort rotation + S4 pro-poor targeting removal - Time-series experiments: main + v9 Fig 10 extras (S4/P3a/P3b trajectories, 20 seeds each) - Robustness checks: S1 social-norm weight configurations and A3-A6 mechanism ablations - All reproducible checkpoints (JSON) - Full ODD protocol (Grimm et al. 2020) - DHS preprocessing pipeline
Reproduces all figures and tables in the manuscript.
Associated Publications
Kim, W., & Shin, H. (2026). Nonlinear equity effects of ITN distribution policies in Kenya: An agent-based microsimulation with empirical calibration and ensemble analysis. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation. [Manuscript under review]
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://www.comses.net/codebases/002e0b87-48ae-4815-a68c-83403baea4d1/releases/1.0.0