NRDCPI v17.0 — NATO-Russia Direct Conflict Probability Index

Model Discussion
1

NRDCPI v17.0 — NATO-Russia Direct Conflict Probability Index (1.0.0)

This model implements a bidirectional coupling between micro-level agent decisions and macro-level system dynamics, with an additional diagnostic layer based on Stafford Beer’s Viable System Model.

Key features: - Six types of agents (Household, Firm, Bank, Government, Foreign, Innovation) - Continuous SDM core integrated with Runge-Kutta 4 - Robust GDELT data handling with multi-level fallback - Kalman-smoothed composite risk index (NRDCPI) - Scenario analysis (base, peace, war, freeze) - Interactive visualisation dashboard

Documentation strictly follows the ODD protocol (Grimm et al., 2006, 2010, 2020). The model is released under CC-BY-4.0 and is intended for research and teaching purposes.

Release Notes

NRDCPI v17.0 — NATO-Russia Direct Conflict Probability Index

Hybrid ABM–SDM–VSM model of escalation risk between NATO and Russia

Overview

NRDCPI v17.0 is a hybrid computational model that combines three modelling paradigms:

  • Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) — behavioural responses of heterogeneous agents
  • System Dynamics (SDM) — continuous macro-level feedback processes
  • Viable System Model (VSM) — institutional viability diagnosis and corrective signals

The model generates a composite, time-evolving index (NRDCPI) reflecting the probability of direct military conflict. It incorporates real-time or cached GDELT media signals, Kalman filtering, Bayesian updating of escalation probability, and Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis.

Important: This model is intended for research and educational purposes only. It is not an operational early-warning or decision-support system for real-world military or political use.

Documentation

Full model documentation is provided in the ODD protocol format (Grimm et al. 2006, 2010, 2020).

Files included in this release

File Description NRDCPI_v17.0.py Main model source code ODD_Protocol_NRDCPI_v17.0.md Full ODD protocol (Markdown) ODD_Protocol_NRDCPI_v17.0.pdf Full ODD protocol (PDF) requirements.txt Python dependencies README.md This file LICENSE CC-BY-4.0 license text

Requirements

  • Python 3.10 or higher
  • Packages listed in requirements.txt

Associated Publications

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://www.comses.net/codebases/5aa5dce3-bae5-4930-9725-97065260e930/releases/1.0.0/