Relevant models of past pandemics/epidemics

coronavirus
1

What are useful existing models to start developing a model for the corona virus spread?

There are a number of relevant models in the COMSES library that might be starting points for corona virus models:
Model on the measles outbreak in 1805
Model of the spread of the Spanish flu
Modeling protective behavior like handwashing on spread of influenza

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The third one of those is mine. It actually has a bunch of communication stuff in it which is completely irrelevant for the epidemic modelling. Further, if you dump the communication elements, you no longer need the extended widgets NetLogo extension. I use a cleaned up version of the model for my ABM training courses, and it is available at http://research.criticalconnections.com.au/ABMBook/. That version does not have communication, but it also does not have population density.

I should also note that the epidemic transmission in the model is actually done with spatial difference equations (so is a system dynamics approach), but the behaviour is modelled with agents.

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I’ve found a couple of open-source, individual based models:


and

Dan T

4

Thanks for sharing these useful links.

I think, instead of everyone starts building and publishing models, there should be a coordinated group to build a good and validated one.

If I can help to any team with my expertise, time, code etc., please contact me asap.

Take care
Manuel.

5

Hi Manuel,

I just dropped you an email about our project using ABM to model coronavirus spread in refugee camps.

Thanks.

Billy

6

I ended up actually starting from scratch to build a COVID-19 ABM. It is oriented to social interventions and uses parameters from the literature to set disease state information and is calibrated to a deterministic SEIR model to get reasonable baseline transmission parameters. See https://www.comses.net/codebases/1669ffd5-ed68-4495-96e9-7aa635365ce7/releases/1.0.0/