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TRUE GRASP: Actors visualize and explore hidden limitations of an apparent win-win land management strategy in a MAB reserve


#1

TRUE GRASP: Actors visualize and explore hidden limitations of an apparent win-win land management strategy in a MAB reserve

Marco Braasch, Luis García Barrios, Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald, Neptalí Ramírez Marcial y Sergio Cortina

Win-win solutions might be short-lived. Government permission for smallholder farmers to extract and sell resin from a pine savanna biosphere-reserve in Mexico has settled a long dispute among different stakeholders in the short-term, however forest production and conservation beyond 20 years are compromised due to low pine recruitment caused by competition with exotic grasses. Grass control practiced by farmers through grazing and fire has previously been discouraged by conservation authorities, which inadvertently limits long-term pine conservation and use. We describe the participatory design, rationale and simulation attributes of an educational, interactive, agent-based model “TRUE GRASP”, that explores suites of management options and their economic and ecological outputs. We present and analyze some of the outcomes of four simulation workshops, where farmers and external-actors better grasped the complex ecological interactions involved in conserving and using pines in grazed pine savanna with exotic grasses. Finally, we give some examples how our findings were discussed with a long-term vision and tradeoff analysis.

Model URL: https://www.comses.net/codebases/929f4083-af57-45bd-a984-88292ac71be6/releases/1.0.0/


About CoMSES 2018
#2

Great combination of an ABM and stakeholder engagement! When you explore the strategy space and explore the combinations of strategies, how do you deal with uncertainties and sensitivities of the system. Do you present a mean of many runs? Do you include uncertainty analysis of certain variables in the ecological model?


#3

Yes, we did a sensitivity analysis for the search space for some of the results of the user outputs. You can see means in our paper Fig. 10 were some examples are shown:

BRAASCH, Marco, et al. 2018. TRUE GRASP: Actors visualize and explore hidden limitations of an apparent win-win land management strategy in a MAB reserve. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2018, 105. Jg., S. 153-170

An explicit uncertainty analysis we didn’t do, however for the most important variables a sensitivity analysis was hold. This results are shown in the Appendix B Fig. 3.

If you are interested I can share the paper with you.


#4

Thank you very much for your comments
Marco Braasch